Enerdatics maps 780 GW in U.S. interconnection queues

Enerdatics released a report on where more than 780 GW of solar, wind and battery storage sits in U.S. interconnection queues and which projects are most likely to attract buyers. The analysis says interconnection agreements, not just pipeline size, are now shaping renewable M&A across ERCOT, PJM and NYISO.

Why it matters: - Interconnection status is now a bigger M&A filter than raw pipeline size for renewable buyers. - The report maps where secured and pre-IA capacity sits in ERCOT, PJM and NYISO, the markets most likely to shape near-term deal flow. - More than 780 GW of solar, wind and battery storage is in U.S. interconnection queues, but only a fraction has a signed interconnection agreement.

What happened: - Enerdatics released M&A Signals from the Queue, a report on development pipelines across major U.S. power markets. - The report focuses on ERCOT, PJM and NYISO, which together hold more than 425 GW of queued capacity. - The report is available at no cost, with registration through Enerdatics' report page. - The underlying dataset is also available in Enerdatics Leap, the company's AI-native deal intelligence platform.

The details: - Across the five largest ISOs, 44 development-stage assets have traded since January 2025. - Buyers have favored projects where interconnection risk is resolved or visible. - ERCOT and PJM account for most recent transactions, with 21 and 8 development-stage deals since early 2025. - ERCOT's recent deals were evenly split on interconnection status, with 11 of 21 carrying a secured IA. - PJM skews more de-risked, with 5 of 8 recent deals backed by a secured IA. - MISO differs from the other major markets, with 5 of 7 deals still lacking a secured IA at the time of sale. - NYISO and CAISO each had 3 of 4 recent deals involving IA-secured assets.

Between the lines: - The report suggests the market is pricing in queue quality, not just queue volume. - That shift helps explain why sellers with clearer interconnection visibility are drawing more attention. - In ERCOT, more than 360 GW is in the queue, including over 120 GW with secured IAs. - ERCOT's secured pipeline includes 65 GW of solar, 19 GW of wind and 37 GW of battery storage. - Most secured ERCOT projects sit around the Panhandle and Dallas, while recent acquisitions have moved into the South and Houston regions. - Battery storage is the near-term focus in ERCOT, with about 43 GW expected to secure an IA within 12 months. - That 43 GW represents nearly 60% of the near-IA cohort, and a large share remains untapped. - More than 173 GW of early-stage ERCOT pipeline spans 820 projects expected to reach IA in 12 to 36 months. - Sabanci Holdings, Cox Energy and Gridstor have all acquired early-stage ERCOT assets since the start of 2025. - Wind is a weaker transaction market in ERCOT, despite a large IA-secured wind pipeline in the Panhandle. - No development-stage wind asset in ERCOT has traded in the last two to three years. - The report profiles OCI Energy, Belltown Power, Savion, Enfinity, Advanced Power and Balanced Rock Power as active ERCOT developers with divestiture track records. - PJM's advanced-stage pipeline is more than 50 GW, led by about 27 GW of IA-secured solar. - PJM also has about 4.5 GW of IA-secured wind and 4 GW of battery storage. - Illinois leads PJM's secured cohort with 7.8 GW, followed by Ohio with 6.9 GW. - Virginia has 6.6 GW of IA-secured capacity, but M&A activity there remains limited because owners are holding projects for in-state load growth. - PJM's new cycle-based queue drew 811 applications totaling 220 GW in Cycle 1. - Natural gas made up 105.8 GW, or 48%, of that Cycle 1 volume. - Renewables and storage represented 44% of capacity and 76% of projects, with 612 filings. - PJM's reform is intended to cut the time to an IA from four or five years to one or two. - The new process uses 100% site control requirements, study deposits and readiness deposits to screen out speculative filings. - Around 53 GW in PJM already holds signed agreements but remains slowed by permitting, siting and supply-chain constraints. - The report profiles Invenergy, RWE, EDF and Deriva Energy as developers with sizable PJM pipelines. - The report also points to pre-IA transactions involving Exus Renewables and TerraForm Power. - NYISO's queue is about 16 GW, with only around 550 MW across 10 projects already secured by IA. - NYISO's secured pool is fragmented, averaging about 50 MW across nine upstate counties. - Solar accounts for 327 MW of NYISO's secured capacity, and one 205 MW battery project in Dutchess County is the only storage asset in that group. - The remaining 15.8 GW in NYISO is pre-IA and spread across 110 projects. - Battery storage dominates that pre-IA pool at 11.4 GW. - Nearly half of NYISO's battery pipeline is downstate across New York City and Long Island, and that pipeline is entirely storage. - Every utility-scale NYISO transaction since early 2025 has been upstate solar. - No downstate battery asset has traded in NYISO. - The report identifies RWE, Solv Energy and EDF as developers to watch in NYISO.

What's next: - Enerdatics says buyers should move early on near-IA storage in ERCOT. - The report recommends tracking readiness before paying up in PJM. - In NYISO, the report sees the best opportunity in downstate battery storage before interconnection is secured. - The same screen can now be run across markets beyond ERCOT, PJM and NYISO inside Enerdatics Leap.

The bottom line: - The next wave of renewable M&A is likely to follow interconnection certainty, not just pipeline size.