New report sketches four futures for U.S. civic life by 2036

The nonpartisan Civic Futures Institute has released a new foresight report on how American civic life could evolve by 2036 as trust, technology, polarization and social connection continue to shift. The report argues Americans still have choices about which path emerges.

Why it matters: - Civic life in the U.S. is under pressure from declining trust, polarization, economic strain and AI-mediated relationships. - The report argues those forces could produce very different outcomes by 2036, not just a single inevitable decline. - The findings land as the U.S. marks its 250th year and as global democratic backsliding continues.

What happened: - The nonpartisan Civic Futures Institute released Civic Life in America: Alternative Futures in 2036 on Sept. 22, 2026. - The report uses foresight methodology to map four possible futures for American civic life over the next decade. - Lisa Duty, Ph.D., founder of Civic Futures Institute, authored the report. - The report says everyday Americans still have power to shape civic life.

The details: - The report is based on 38 expert interviews conducted between January and June 2026. - It also draws on extensive secondary research. - The analysis focuses on five converging forces: a widening gap between civic participation and trust, AI-mediated information and relationships, social connection, economic precarity and political polarization. - The report uses Jim Dator’s “Four Futures” framework. - The four scenarios are Convenient America, The Hollow Republic, A Guarded Union and Agentic Nation. - Convenient America envisions civic life becoming easier to enter but harder to belong to. - The Hollow Republic envisions civic life not disappearing, but hollowing out. - A Guarded Union envisions civic life becoming more rule-bound, protected and constrained. - Agentic Nation envisions civic life acquiring a second layer of representation through AI agents. - The report says none of the futures is purely good or bad. - The report says each future includes gains, losses, contradictions and tradeoffs. - Each scenario includes a future forecast and human scenes showing what daily civic life could feel like if the pattern takes hold. - The report says the scenarios are not predictions, but signals of developments already emerging today. - The report says it is available now at civicfutures.us. - The report was developed with support from the Ellis Family Fund.

Between the lines: - The report frames the core challenge as more than a left-versus-right divide. - Its deeper question is whether Americans can rebuild the relationships, habits, associations and governing capacity that make self-government workable. - Duty said the goal is to widen the aperture on what is possible and expose the choices inside current trends. - Duty also said the point is to break the sense that any single future is inevitable. - The report cites a wider democratic recession, including Freedom House’s finding that global freedom declined for the 20th consecutive year in 2025. - Freedom House rates the United States as Free with a score of 81 out of 100. - Pew Research Center found only 17% of Americans trust the federal government to do what is right most or all of the time, down from 73% in 1958. - A record 45% of Americans identify as political independents.

What's next: - The report signals that civic outcomes will depend on choices made now, not just on technology or politics alone. - The scenarios are meant to help readers identify current developments that could strengthen or weaken civic life. - The report suggests the future starts with recognizing that power still exists and can be directed. - More information is available in the company announcement.